Question for the statisticians
Question for the statisticians
What are the odds on someone drawing the same player over a weekend in the first round, on the Friday night ET quals, then the two weekend pro tour events?
"Deserved Better"
GM, 2021.
GM, 2021.
Re: RE: Question for the statisticians
Would need to know the number of entries in each of the 3 events (although two of them will probably be 128)Rout wrote:What are the odds on someone drawing the same player over a weekend in the first round, on the Friday night ET quals, then the two weekend pro tour events?
Also if either of the players concerned was seeded in any of the 3 events.
Big Jock Knew
Re: Question for the statisticians
If you went off this weekends numbers?
And neither player seeded.
And neither player seeded.
"Deserved Better"
GM, 2021.
GM, 2021.
Re: Question for the statisticians
Well, certainly longer odds than the womens number one seed in the bdo, in fact longer than the Turkish open which the fanboys said was obvious cheating, why do you ask?Rout wrote:What are the odds on someone drawing the same player over a weekend in the first round, on the Friday night ET quals, then the two weekend pro tour events?
"it's the same trolls spouting the same crap every other post.... you have to be some kind of sad act to watch nearly 8 hours of darts a day for 9 days just to post about how crap it is"
Madsocks
Madsocks
Re: Question for the statisticians
Well an unseeded player can draw any other player in the draw (seeded or unseeded) first round in the Saturday so that would be a 1 in 127 chance.
Same again Sunday.
So that's 1/127 x 1/127 for the two weekend events.
1 in 16,129 just for those two alone? Could be wrong.
Friday is trickier as I don't know the numbers and there are byes to include.
Same again Sunday.
So that's 1/127 x 1/127 for the two weekend events.
1 in 16,129 just for those two alone? Could be wrong.
Friday is trickier as I don't know the numbers and there are byes to include.
Big Jock Knew
Re: Question for the statisticians
By my quick reckoning, it's 1/181.5 in the ET qualifying and 1/127 in the pro tours - assuming they aren't seeded.
So the chances of this happening would be 1 in 2,927,413.
I don't think this happened this weekend, or has it?
So the chances of this happening would be 1 in 2,927,413.
I don't think this happened this weekend, or has it?
Re: Question for the statisticians
1 in 3 million? Is that right??
Wowza.
Wowza.
"Deserved Better"
GM, 2021.
GM, 2021.
Re: Question for the statisticians
My calculations for the Friday:Ginge wrote:Well an unseeded player can draw any other player in the draw (seeded or unseeded) first round in the Saturday so that would be a 1 in 127 chance.
Same again Sunday.
So that's 1/127 x 1/127 for the two weekend events.
1 in 16,129 just for those two alone? Could be wrong.
Friday is trickier as I don't know the numbers and there are byes to include.
84 entries - 18 of which are seeds, 66 non-seeds
12 first round games - 24 players
So we need the chance of both players getting a first round game and then drawing each other.
By my reckoning this is 24/66 x 23/66 x 1/23 which is 1/181.5
Re: Question for the statisticians
I'm intrigued as to which two PDC heavyweights who are having to play qualifiers the PDC are fixing draws for
Big Jock Knew
Re: Question for the statisticians
Remind me what happened there? What went on and what were the odds?ifm wrote:Well, certainly longer odds than the womens number one seed in the bdo, in fact longer than the Turkish open which the fanboys said was obvious cheating, why do you ask?Rout wrote:What are the odds on someone drawing the same player over a weekend in the first round, on the Friday night ET quals, then the two weekend pro tour events?
"Deserved Better"
GM, 2021.
GM, 2021.
Re: RE: Re: Question for the statisticians
Odds of that were in the billions, if I recall correctly.Rout wrote:Remind me what happened there? What went on and what were the odds?ifm wrote:Well, certainly longer odds than the womens number one seed in the bdo, in fact longer than the Turkish open which the fanboys said was obvious cheating, why do you ask?Rout wrote:What are the odds on someone drawing the same player over a weekend in the first round, on the Friday night ET quals, then the two weekend pro tour events?
But everyone had a good time so it didn't matter.
Big Jock Knew
Re: RE: Re: Question for the statisticians
Which "heavyweights" were involved in that?Ginge wrote:Odds of that were in the billions, if I recall correctly.Rout wrote:Remind me what happened there? What went on and what were the odds?ifm wrote:Well, certainly longer odds than the womens number one seed in the bdo, in fact longer than the Turkish open which the fanboys said was obvious cheating, why do you ask?Rout wrote:What are the odds on someone drawing the same player over a weekend in the first round, on the Friday night ET quals, then the two weekend pro tour events?
But everyone had a good time so it didn't matter.
"Deserved Better"
GM, 2021.
GM, 2021.
Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: Question for the statisticians
The JacklinsRout wrote:Which "heavyweights" were involved in that?Ginge wrote:Odds of that were in the billions, if I recall correctly.Rout wrote:Remind me what happened there? What went on and what were the odds?ifm wrote:Well, certainly longer odds than the womens number one seed in the bdo, in fact longer than the Turkish open which the fanboys said was obvious cheating, why do you ask?Rout wrote:What are the odds on someone drawing the same player over a weekend in the first round, on the Friday night ET quals, then the two weekend pro tour events?
But everyone had a good time so it didn't matter.
Come on, tell us what you have spotted.
Big Jock Knew
Re: Question for the statisticians
Basically one competition nationalities avoided each other, the odds were made up so we don't know for certain what they were but either way it was technically possible, indeed it was proven by the software creator, however the fanboys went apoplectic with joy because they could run around fb and all the forums claiming it was rigged and there was cheating afoot.Rout wrote:Remind me what happened there? What went on and what were the odds?ifm wrote:Well, certainly longer odds than the womens number one seed in the bdo, in fact longer than the Turkish open which the fanboys said was obvious cheating, why do you ask?Rout wrote:What are the odds on someone drawing the same player over a weekend in the first round, on the Friday night ET quals, then the two weekend pro tour events?
Now if the odds are in the millions for one comp imagine what they would be for 3 comps consecutively!!!!!
"it's the same trolls spouting the same crap every other post.... you have to be some kind of sad act to watch nearly 8 hours of darts a day for 9 days just to post about how crap it is"
Madsocks
Madsocks
Re: Question for the statisticians
My bet is that nothing is apparent and Rout has everyone getting their calculators out for no reason.
Re: RE: Re: Question for the statisticians
Eh?ifm wrote: Now if the odds are in the millions for one comp imagine what they would be for 3 comps consecutively!!!!!
Big Jock Knew
Re: Question for the statisticians
Scott Taylor and Richie Corner met in all 3 first round matches this weekend. Fri, Sat and Sun.
"Deserved Better"
GM, 2021.
GM, 2021.
Re: RE: Re: Question for the statisticians
They must have fixed it then, case closed.Rout wrote:Scott Taylor and Richie Corner met in all 3 first round matches this weekend. Fri, Sat and Sun.
Big Jock Knew
Re: Question for the statisticians
I am absolutely CERTAIN there will be the same level of hysteria about it now that the professional arm of the game has gone under the radar in this respect.ifm wrote:Basically one competition nationalities avoided each other, the odds were made up so we don't know for certain what they were but either way it was technically possible, indeed it was proven by the software creator, however the fanboys went apoplectic with joy because they could run around fb and all the forums claiming it was rigged and there was cheating afoot.Rout wrote:Remind me what happened there? What went on and what were the odds?ifm wrote:Well, certainly longer odds than the womens number one seed in the bdo, in fact longer than the Turkish open which the fanboys said was obvious cheating, why do you ask?Rout wrote:What are the odds on someone drawing the same player over a weekend in the first round, on the Friday night ET quals, then the two weekend pro tour events?
Now if the odds are in the millions for one comp imagine what they would be for 3 comps consecutively!!!!!
"Deserved Better"
GM, 2021.
GM, 2021.
Re: Question for the statisticians
"odds in the millions for one comp"
Oh dear. First the decimal odds in the other thread, and now this. Ian's shocker with numbers today continues.
Oh dear. First the decimal odds in the other thread, and now this. Ian's shocker with numbers today continues.
Big Jock Knew