The Ochepedia Thread

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AVERAGES! @ochepedia has ranked the top 64 players on their combined average over the month of March.

Some interesting names up there!

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Christopher Kempf, the statistical analyst of the PDC, looks at an extraordinarily understated, masterful title run by Mickey Mansell.

EVEN today, it seems so unlikely that Mickey Mansell could have won Players Championship Eight, blasting his way through a talented field of World Champions and top 16 players to claim his first PDC title.

After all, this is the same Mickey Mansell who has not even made a quarter-final for the better part of four years.

The £10,000 earned by the Northern Irishman in his debut win, while all but securing a Tour Card for the 2019 season, does not even put him into the top 64 in the world.

How, then, do we account for the fact that Mansell dispatched his opposition by a combined score of 42-11, never allowing any opponent to throw match darts? How does a player so unheralded make such quick work of four Premier League alumni?

The answer is consistency. Of those 42 legs won by the left-hander, 39 were finished in 18 darts or less.

Almost irrespective of his foes' output, Mansell's average remained in the mid-90s for leg after leg as the man from County Tyrone dished out 15 and 17 darters, hour after hour.

Moreover, if his record of 19 checkouts in 24 attempts (79%) in which he had three darts at a double placed him at the level of the world's top players, his achievement of 23 two-dart checkouts (3-39 odd, 41-98, 100) in 35 attempts placed him well above it.

Outshots like 81 in three darts, 80 in two, 71 in three, 64 in three may seem unspectacular to the average darts fan, but they were spectacularly effective for Mansell, who deployed their like multiple times in each match to deny opponents dozens of darts at doubles.

All of the exciting and statistically notable features of darts - the 180s, the high checkouts, the 11- and 12-dart legs - are entirely superfluous to a player who plays with wuch consistency.

And in fact, Mansell had no finishes of 101 or greater, resulting from 30 attempts; only three legs in the tournament won in four visits to the board, and a mere 11 180s scored in 53 legs.

Perhaps a few stylish visits would have boosted his average or given the commentators something to laud, but one cannot win by a larger margin than a 6-0 whitewash, and Mansell had three of those on Sunday.

What need had he to run up the score even further?

Mansell's triumph may be the clearest indication yet seen of the effectiveness of 140s in winning legs.

The second treble hit in a visit to the board (yielding a 140) gives the biggest boost, in terms of number of darts needed to reach a finish, a double, or win the leg, to a player's fortunes.

The third treble is, of course, always welcome, but the extra benefit tends to be wasted in a leg that the player will win anyway if he hits a 140.

Even 100s, which Mansell also recorded at a prodigious rate, when backed up by solid combination finishing, put just enough pressure on opponents by limiting the number and increasing the difficulty of finishes they can attempt.

With 52 100s and 52 140s in 53 legs - very nearly one of each per leg - Mansell wrung every last bit of effectiveness out of each treble scored.

Rarely does a player record an average of nearly 107 with his first nine darts of the leg whilst hitting so few 180s, as Mansell did on Sundays - but if so few 180s resulted in a leg difference of +31 for the day, they were not missed.

If you like your darts fast and furious, replete with 110+ averages and 170 checkouts, Mickey Mansell may not be the player for you.

In that respect, normal service will resume on the PDC circuit once the likes of Michael van Gerwen and Rob Cross return for the Unibet Premier League on Thursday and for this weekend's German Darts Open.

But the fact that Mansell is not the best player in the world is perhaps even more a testament to his achievement in Barnsley on Sunday.

The world number 66 managed to win a tournament by the widest possible margin with a minimum of effort - a feat almost without precedent in the current era of professional darts.

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Gary Anderson is the leading tops hitter since December 16 2017, landing 50.3% of his 165 attempts in TV tournaments so far.

@ochepedia has mapped his consistency on D20.

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FAO Phil Davies

MvG has won his 33rd consecutive match against a Welsh opponent.

[Mgt]

FAO Phil Davies

MvG has won his 33rd consecutive match against a Welsh opponent.

People keep track of the weirdest stuff.

[ssjsa]

FAO Phil Davies

MvG has won his 33rd consecutive match against a Welsh opponent.

People keep track of the weirdest stuff.

Jonny Clayton obviously pissed off after reading this stat.

[Mgt]

FAO Phil Davies

MvG has won his 33rd consecutive match against a Welsh opponent.

People keep track of the weirdest stuff.

Jonny Clayton obviously pissed off after reading this stat.

Alas! My carefully constructed cover is blown! Damn you John.

Back to the drawing board to devise a way to ferret myself back into this forum without drawing attention.

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Christopher Kempf, the statistical analyst of the PDC, takes a statistical look at why players with higher averages often lose.

Phil Taylor scored 384 points more than Raymond van Barneveld in their 2015 Premier League clash, and did so with four fewer darts than the total thrown by the Dutchman over 11 legs.

Yet, despite averaging 115.80 Taylor lost the match by a convincing 7-4 scoreline.

To this date Taylor's average in this match still stands as the highest losing average ever seen on television.

How does a player averaging 116, and playing at a standard beyond the capabilities of most professionals, manage to lose the match?

Was Taylor the victim of bad luck or poor strategy? Or is the answer merely that the three-dart average tells us little about a player's actual performance in a match?

When summarising the scores of hundreds of darts thrown at dozens of different targets around the board in one number, the three-dart average will be vague.

The number of points gained from scoring on a given segment of the board does not always match the difficulty of hitting it or its relevance to winning a leg.

For instance, the bullseye is more difficult to hit than the treble 20 segment, yet a player's average is comparatively improved by hitting the latter.

The most serious of these flaws is the inability of the three-dart average to accurately represent the importance of finishing in games.

Missing a checkout just to the outside of the double ring, even if it serves as a good marker for the next dart, is hugely detrimental to the average.

Three darts thrown on the inside of doubles, for example scoring 35 on attempts at doubles of 20, 10 and 5, is preferable to missing on the outside and scoring zero in terms of maximising the average.

No double, even the bullseye, scores as powerfully as the treble 20, yet any darts player will tell you that finishing is the most important part of the game.

Our go-to statistic for darts is therefore unworthy of the challenge of telling us what we really want to know - who played the best all-around match?

A single match is too short a time period in which to evaluate a player's performance through his average anyway.

It is only over the long-run of hundreds to thousands of legs that the three-dart average becomes broadly indicative of a player's quality.

Almost any player in the PDC has the potential to string together half a dozen stellar legs and average 100 or more in a single match, and nearly 100 different players have done so this year.

However, it is an indication of Michael van Gerwen's quality that in his 1000+ legs contested so far this year, the world number one is the only PDC player to be averaging over 100.

The player with the higher average in a best-of-11-legs match loses about 20% of the time.

That 20% figure includes 6-5 nail-biters in which the players' averages are nearly equal, as well as games such as Jason Cullen's (86.10) 6-3 defeat of Steven Kirkby (98.04) at the UK Open Qualifiers.

Averages can be inflated by winning legs in 10 darts rather than 12 (resulting in a 20% increase in the average) and also by being beaten so thoroughly as to not be able to attempt a double in several legs.

The longer a match goes on, the likelihood of winning with a lower average, and the size of winning players' deficits in terms of that statistic, both decrease.

Few players have mastered the art of getting results from low averages to the extent of James Wade.

In 30 Players Championship victories so far this year, 10 came in matches in which Wade's opponent had the higher average, and in none of those matches did Wade average over 100.

A major factor in the success of this squeezing-blood-from-a-stone approach has been Wade's exemplary 9-2 record in last-leg deciders.

Wade seems to be content to lose several legs in a match, often by the wide margins that boost his opponents' averages, merely to refocus his efforts on winning the final leg, which he often does.

The result is that while the average PDC player can only win 20% of the matches in which his opponent scores the higher average, Wade has actually won the majority of his.

Comparatively, Van Gerwen in the Premier League is almost never in a position to have his average surpassed in a match.

Yet, his past eight losses in the event came in spite of recording an average substantially higher than that of his opponents' - including 7-5 losses to Peter Wright and Van Barneveld in this year's Premier League, despite surpassing their averages by eight and nine points respectively.

Beating Van Gerwen is all about capitalising on a few missed doubles, as no player in the PDC can match his scoring power.

That scoring power boosts Van Gerwen's average consistently but does not guarantee he'll always hit the doubles he needs.

Are we too fixated on the three-dart average? It is the essential statistic of darts, yet in the short-term it tells us little about what we really want to know.

A high average is no guarantee of winning, or of an exciting match; likewise, a low average is no guarantee of losing, or of a dull contest.

As Taylor found out by passing on the opportunity to throw for the bull in that 2015 Premier League match with Van Barneveld, a 116 average is no substitute for impeccable timing.

[ssjsa]

Christopher Kempf, the statistical analyst of the PDC, takes a statistical look at why players with higher averages often lose.

Phil Taylor scored 384 points more than Raymond van Barneveld in their 2015 Premier League clash, and did so with four fewer darts than the total thrown by the Dutchman over 11 legs.

Yet, despite averaging 115.80 Taylor lost the match by a convincing 7-4 scoreline.

To this date Taylor's average in this match still stands as the highest losing average ever seen on television.

How does a player averaging 116, and playing at a standard beyond the capabilities of most professionals, manage to lose the match?

Was Taylor the victim of bad luck or poor strategy? Or is the answer merely that the three-dart average tells us little about a player's actual performance in a match?

When summarising the scores of hundreds of darts thrown at dozens of different targets around the board in one number, the three-dart average will be vague.

The number of points gained from scoring on a given segment of the board does not always match the difficulty of hitting it or its relevance to winning a leg.

For instance, the bullseye is more difficult to hit than the treble 20 segment, yet a player's average is comparatively improved by hitting the latter.

The most serious of these flaws is the inability of the three-dart average to accurately represent the importance of finishing in games.

Missing a checkout just to the outside of the double ring, even if it serves as a good marker for the next dart, is hugely detrimental to the average.

Three darts thrown on the inside of doubles, for example scoring 35 on attempts at doubles of 20, 10 and 5, is preferable to missing on the outside and scoring zero in terms of maximising the average.

No double, even the bullseye, scores as powerfully as the treble 20, yet any darts player will tell you that finishing is the most important part of the game.

Our go-to statistic for darts is therefore unworthy of the challenge of telling us what we really want to know - who played the best all-around match?

A single match is too short a time period in which to evaluate a player's performance through his average anyway.

It is only over the long-run of hundreds to thousands of legs that the three-dart average becomes broadly indicative of a player's quality.

Almost any player in the PDC has the potential to string together half a dozen stellar legs and average 100 or more in a single match, and nearly 100 different players have done so this year.

However, it is an indication of Michael van Gerwen's quality that in his 1000+ legs contested so far this year, the world number one is the only PDC player to be averaging over 100.

The player with the higher average in a best-of-11-legs match loses about 20% of the time.

That 20% figure includes 6-5 nail-biters in which the players' averages are nearly equal, as well as games such as Jason Cullen's (86.10) 6-3 defeat of Steven Kirkby (98.04) at the UK Open Qualifiers.

Averages can be inflated by winning legs in 10 darts rather than 12 (resulting in a 20% increase in the average) and also by being beaten so thoroughly as to not be able to attempt a double in several legs.

The longer a match goes on, the likelihood of winning with a lower average, and the size of winning players' deficits in terms of that statistic, both decrease.

Few players have mastered the art of getting results from low averages to the extent of James Wade.

In 30 Players Championship victories so far this year, 10 came in matches in which Wade's opponent had the higher average, and in none of those matches did Wade average over 100.

A major factor in the success of this squeezing-blood-from-a-stone approach has been Wade's exemplary 9-2 record in last-leg deciders.

Wade seems to be content to lose several legs in a match, often by the wide margins that boost his opponents' averages, merely to refocus his efforts on winning the final leg, which he often does.

The result is that while the average PDC player can only win 20% of the matches in which his opponent scores the higher average, Wade has actually won the majority of his.

Comparatively, Van Gerwen in the Premier League is almost never in a position to have his average surpassed in a match.

Yet, his past eight losses in the event came in spite of recording an average substantially higher than that of his opponents' - including 7-5 losses to Peter Wright and Van Barneveld in this year's Premier League, despite surpassing their averages by eight and nine points respectively.

Beating Van Gerwen is all about capitalising on a few missed doubles, as no player in the PDC can match his scoring power.

That scoring power boosts Van Gerwen's average consistently but does not guarantee he'll always hit the doubles he needs.

Are we too fixated on the three-dart average? It is the essential statistic of darts, yet in the short-term it tells us little about what we really want to know.

A high average is no guarantee of winning, or of an exciting match; likewise, a low average is no guarantee of losing, or of a dull contest.

As Taylor found out by passing on the opportunity to throw for the bull in that 2015 Premier League match with Van Barneveld, a 116 average is no substitute for impeccable timing.

[Little Lonely Garry]

My Eyes !!!!

do you have to copy every word from twitter ?
If you are going to copy everything why not just post a link

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My Eyes !!!!

do you have to copy every word from twitter ?
If you are going to copy everything why not just post a link

Not from Twitter.

[ssjsa]

Christopher Kempf
@ochepedia

PDC-wide accuracy on the treble 20, per dart:
1st dart - 34.77%
2nd dart - 40.25%
3rd dart - 42.71%

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Christopher Kempf
@Ochepedia

The top 5 players' averages since December for the past two Q-School classes, with the combined total averages for each.
Corey Cadby's average puts him in 4th place for the entire PDC.

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@Ochepedia has taken a look at the combined averages for the last six months...

World number one Michael van Gerwen leading the way!

[Lee Taylor]

Some great stats there mate.

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Christopher Kempf
@ochepedia

The top 10 tour card holders at checking out with 3 darts at a double (since December):
84.1% - Burton
82.5% - van Gerwen
81.7% - Edgar
81.0% - Dootson
80.8% - Dekker
80.7% - Cross
80.7% - Cadby
80.3% - Wade
80.2% - J. Lewis
80.1% - Clemens

Gurney is 16th, Wright is 32nd

The bottom 10:
63.0% - Jiwa
62.8% - Meikle
62.3% - Hine
62.1% - Marijanović
61.6% - Kanik
60.7% - Baxter
58.5% - J. Brown
57.1% - Temple
56.8% - Goldie
48.3% - Darbyshire

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WHEN Rob Cross won the right to throw first before the deciding leg of his 2018 World Championship semi-final against Michael van Gerwen he gained a decisive advantage.

The eventual World Champion threw a handful of match darts before Van Gerwen could recover from a missed double of his own.

To oversimplify, that bullseye alone could be seen as the catalyst for Cross' eventual triumph as World Champion, resulting in a £315,000 payday, a guaranteed place in the top 10 of the PDC Order of Merit for the next two years, and a permanent place in the annals of darts.

The drama of that high-stakes throw for the bullseye was made all the more remarkable by the fact that it is so rarely seen in televised matches.

With the exception of World Championship deciding legs, all throws for the bull in PDC stage events are done backstage with no cameras on hand to observe the action, yet it is as relevant to the outcome of a match as any individual leg of the match itself.

Thanks to the streaming of matches from PDC floor events, fans can now observe dozens of these contests each week.

They make it immediately obvious why these are not typically televised - with each player throwing only one dart at time, and frequently hitting the same segment as their opponent in any given turn, the throw for the bull can go on interminably.

Suppose that player A hits the bullseye with their first dart in an opening throw for the bull, forcing their opponent to respond in kind to continue the duel.

In that situation, irrespective of what Player B does, Player A will have a 90% chance of throwing first in both the first leg and a potential final leg.

On the other hand, if Player A misses the bullseye and 25 entirely, they will have only a 10% chance of gaining that advantage.

However, most professionals in the PDC can expect to hit the 25 segment the majority of the time when throwing for the bullseye, so this can lead to a tedious stalemate.

As dull as it may sometimes seem, throwing first matters, and gaining that advantage often makes the difference between earning an extra £1000 in prize money and going home empty-handed.

If you know nothing about a darts match apart from the fact that Player A won the throw for the bull, you can expect Player A to beat his opponent 56.6% of the time.

Put another way, a player who wins 25 throws for the bull, all other things being equal, can expect to win three to four more matches than they would have if they failed to seize the advantage of throwing first.

The effect of winning the throw for the bull is often not felt until the decider, when the advantage of having an extra three darts to win the leg is more than doubled.

Some 64.2% of final legs are won by the player throwing first, a rate slightly higher than that for all legs throughout the match.

It is no surprise, then, that the world's best players also happen to be the most accurate in throwing for the bull, and therefore tend to have an advantage when playing less experienced players because they are more likely to win the opening throw for the bull.

Given that even Premier League opponents could only manage to break Van Gerwen's throw 20.4% of the time, the task of doing so in a last-leg decider appears all the more daunting.

The PDC leaders in bullseye checkout accuracy also show up at the top of the list of players who have won the most throws for the bull in 2018.

Van Gerwen, who has hit 35% of his checkout bullseye attempts this year, has also thrown first in 58% of matches.

Chris Dobey, who has yet to miss a bullseye checkout on stage this year, is even more successful than Van Gerwen on the bull before the match (61%).

Cross, whose 31% bullseye checkout rate led the PDC in 2017, wins 64% of his bullseye duels.

Mickey Mansell has won the right to throw first a spectacular 65% of the time, including in the last six of his seven matches during his run to the Players Championship Eight title.

However, the master of winning the bull-up in 2018 has been Mensur Suljovic, whose 68% win record is the highest in the PDC.

The Austrian is no stranger to throwing for the bullseye, having brought decades of bull-reliant soft-tip experience to bear in winning the bull-up.

In his German Darts Masters title win, he threw first in all four matches, including his game with Cross which went to a crucial deciding-leg.

Allowing the World Champion just 12 darts in the final leg and denying him a chance to return to the board to attempt a 64 checkout, Suljovic completed a 15-darter to get the win. The successful throw for the bull certainly was a decisive factor in it.

Just because you often don't see it doesn't mean that it's not important. The bull-up at the start of each match may not be the most glamorous or exciting aspect of the game, but it has unquestionably played a critical role in the course of darts history.

Follow Christopher Kempf on Twitter through @Ochepedia

[Black Velvet]

Jesus!

[ssjsa]

Jesus!

No Ochepedia. If it was about Jesus, I would have called it The Jesus thread.

[ssjsa]

Christopher Kempf
@Ochepedia

Resilience! The 5 PDC tour card holders whose averages improve the most when they are behind in a match (increase relative to overall average) are:
1. Steve Beaton +2.44
2. Jimmy Hendriks +2.26
3. Steve Hine +1.82
4. Alan Tabern +1.71
5. Ryan Searle +1.68

The five players whose averages decline the most when trailing an opponent:
1. Robert Thornton -2.67
2. Dave Chisnall -2.57
3. Ricky Evans -2.49
4. Paul Nicholson -2.28
5. José Justicia -2.18