Did you ejaculate as you posted this?ssjsa wrote:Christopher Kempf
@Ochepedia
Resilience! The 5 PDC tour card holders whose averages improve the most when they are behind in a match (increase relative to overall average) are:
1. Steve Beaton +2.44
2. Jimmy Hendriks +2.26
3. Steve Hine +1.82
4. Alan Tabern +1.71
5. Ryan Searle +1.68
The five players whose averages decline the most when trailing an opponent:
1. Robert Thornton -2.67
2. Dave Chisnall -2.57
3. Ricky Evans -2.49
4. Paul Nicholson -2.28
5. José Justicia -2.18
The Ochepedia Thread
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Re: RE: Re: The Ochepedia Thread
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Re: The Ochepedia Thread
Christopher Kempf, the statistical analyst of the PDC, takes a look at the risk and reward of cover shots.
Rob Cross produced a stunning cover shot performance at the 2017 bwin Grand Slam of Darts, hitting the treble 19 bed with a staggering 55% accuracy.
This was almost unprecedented not only for his sharp-shooting but also for the high rate at which he switched away from the treble 20, with almost one third of his darts at trebles not thrown at the 60 bed.
Less than a year later, Michael van Gerwen improved on that percentage in the 2018 Unibet Premier League Play-Offs, hitting 52 treble 19s with 85 darts (61%), hitting nine consecutive treble 19s (when attempted) on two separate occasions.
Treble switching, to the extent that it is practiced today, is a relatively new phenomenon in darts, and never before have we seen so many players scoring so many points on the green sisal.
Players have always used the treble 19 bed for a ‘cover shot’ when the treble 20 is blocked by their first or second darts, especially if their darts tend to enter the board at a steep angle.
But more darts than ever before are being thrown at the green bed, and it isn't because the number of blockers has dramatically increased.
On the contrary, it is increasingly common to see many darts thrown at treble 19 even when the first dart leaves the treble 20 relatively open.
Van Gerwen and Peter Wright throw darts that stick out of the board at a similar angle, yet the Dutchman throws nearly four times as many darts at treble 19 than Wright.
Does this switching strategy pay off?
The layout of the dartboard makes treble 19 a far more attractive target than the bullseye or any other treble below it.
The 19 segment is bordered on the left by the sevens and on the right by the threes, meaning that stray darts have a less severe impact on a player's score than they would for darts at treble 17 or 18, where scores of one and two by individual darts are commonplace.
For this reason, the novice player will tend to score marginally higher when aiming at treble 19 than at treble 20, and there are even a few semi-professional players (e.g. Greece's Veniamin Symeonidis) who score exclusively on the 19s.
For the professional, however, the average score per dart of the last 100,000 darts thrown at treble 20 on stage was 34.36 - the highest per-dart score of any segment on the board.
The per-dart average score for treble 19 is 33.10, only 1.26 points less than treble 20 - that's a surprisingly small difference given that each treble 20 scored is, of course, worth three points more than the same target on the opposite end of the board, and that professionals tend to throw less than 10% stray darts in to the intended treble's adjacent segments.
It is especially small compared to the average score of treble 18 (30.97, 2.13 points less than treble 19), suggesting a disadvantage of switching to treble 18 with the third dart unless absolutely necessary, and of treble 17 (28.55, 2.42 points less than treble 18). Something else must explain the relatively strong performance of treble 19.
Average scores per dart:
Treble 20 34.36
Treble 19 33.10
Treble 18 30.88
Treble 17 28.55
Bullseye 27.17
The risk of a bounce-out, almost non-existent with the first dart thanks to improved dartboard technology, increases significantly when aiming at a target with a dart sticking out of it.
This undoubtedly works to the detriment of the treble 20's average score, but bounce-outs are an increasingly rare occurrence and not the defining factor here.
When one digs more deeply into the data, an astonishing statistic emerges: despite the fact that a dart at treble 19 scores more than 1 point less on average than a dart at treble 20, the overall PDC accuracy percentage for players throwing at treble 19 is higher than players' success rate in throwing at treble 20.
When every 2018 stage dart thrown in the first three visits of each leg is taken into account, professionals hit treble 20 39.09% of the time, slightly less than the 39.34% accuracy with which they find the treble 19 target.
Because the first dart thrown at treble 19 is typically the second or third dart of a visit, it may be that a player's first dart at treble 20 - the dart with which he has the lowest accuracy (34.8%) of any dart in the visit - warms them up after waiting for their opponent to throw.
Alternatively, the first dart could serve as a range-finding ‘practice’ dart for a more focused throw with the second or third dart at a totally empty bed.
As a rule, the more darts aimed at a given bed, the likelihood of scoring trebles increases at a reduced rate.
This means that aiming a third dart at any given bed yields only a small additional improvement in per-dart score relative to the second over the first.
The second-dart treble 19 has a 38.3% PDC-wide accuracy rate - a much better statistical starting point with a ‘marker’ already in the board than the 34.8% which a player starts on when attempting treble 20.
Because the treble 19 ‘cover shot’ has such a high initial probability of success, moreover, the likelihood of following a second-dart treble with a third, for a 134 or a 174, is especially high.
Regardless of what causes the unusually high accuracy of players throwing for treble 19, several professionals have recognised that the trade-off of risking a lower per-dart score for a higher probability of hitting a treble works in their favour if they can hit treble 19s at a higher rate than their opponent.
No man has taken greater advantage of this than Van Gerwen, who has found his target with almost every other dart he has thrown at treble 19 this year (49.2%).
His per-dart score of 36.76 is higher even than the corresponding average scores of most other professionals throwing at treble 20.
This advantage often means that Van Gerwen will often throw at treble 19 even when the treble 20 bed is not obscured, giving him one of the highest switch probabilities of any player in the PDC.
The exact rationale for switching in any given moment is known only to Van Gerwen himself, but the combination of frequently switching to treble 19 and hitting it with astonishing accuracy has made him a relentless and versatile scorer.
% of darts not thrown at treble 20, first 9 darts of each leg (PDC top 16):
Kim Huybrechts 30%
Michael van Gerwen 29%
Simon Whitlock 28%
Rob Cross 27%
Gary Anderson 24%
Michael Smith 24%
Gerwyn Price 22%
Dave Chisnall 20%
Daryl Gurney 16%
Darren Webster 14%
Alan Norris 13%
Ian White 12%
James Wade 11%
Mensur Suljovic 10%
Peter Wright 9%
Raymond van Barneveld 8%
The most important considerations for any player in deciding whether or not to switch trebles are the presence of ‘blockers’ around the treble 20 that could interfere with the trajectory of the dart, and the possibility of leaving a better finish by scoring multiples of 19.
Add to that the subtle statistical gamble of risking a lower average in the long-term in order to hit more trebles in the short term.
Players who ‘flip the switch’ and score on the treble 19s add a new flavour of risk and strategy to the game of 501.
Rob Cross produced a stunning cover shot performance at the 2017 bwin Grand Slam of Darts, hitting the treble 19 bed with a staggering 55% accuracy.
This was almost unprecedented not only for his sharp-shooting but also for the high rate at which he switched away from the treble 20, with almost one third of his darts at trebles not thrown at the 60 bed.
Less than a year later, Michael van Gerwen improved on that percentage in the 2018 Unibet Premier League Play-Offs, hitting 52 treble 19s with 85 darts (61%), hitting nine consecutive treble 19s (when attempted) on two separate occasions.
Treble switching, to the extent that it is practiced today, is a relatively new phenomenon in darts, and never before have we seen so many players scoring so many points on the green sisal.
Players have always used the treble 19 bed for a ‘cover shot’ when the treble 20 is blocked by their first or second darts, especially if their darts tend to enter the board at a steep angle.
But more darts than ever before are being thrown at the green bed, and it isn't because the number of blockers has dramatically increased.
On the contrary, it is increasingly common to see many darts thrown at treble 19 even when the first dart leaves the treble 20 relatively open.
Van Gerwen and Peter Wright throw darts that stick out of the board at a similar angle, yet the Dutchman throws nearly four times as many darts at treble 19 than Wright.
Does this switching strategy pay off?
The layout of the dartboard makes treble 19 a far more attractive target than the bullseye or any other treble below it.
The 19 segment is bordered on the left by the sevens and on the right by the threes, meaning that stray darts have a less severe impact on a player's score than they would for darts at treble 17 or 18, where scores of one and two by individual darts are commonplace.
For this reason, the novice player will tend to score marginally higher when aiming at treble 19 than at treble 20, and there are even a few semi-professional players (e.g. Greece's Veniamin Symeonidis) who score exclusively on the 19s.
For the professional, however, the average score per dart of the last 100,000 darts thrown at treble 20 on stage was 34.36 - the highest per-dart score of any segment on the board.
The per-dart average score for treble 19 is 33.10, only 1.26 points less than treble 20 - that's a surprisingly small difference given that each treble 20 scored is, of course, worth three points more than the same target on the opposite end of the board, and that professionals tend to throw less than 10% stray darts in to the intended treble's adjacent segments.
It is especially small compared to the average score of treble 18 (30.97, 2.13 points less than treble 19), suggesting a disadvantage of switching to treble 18 with the third dart unless absolutely necessary, and of treble 17 (28.55, 2.42 points less than treble 18). Something else must explain the relatively strong performance of treble 19.
Average scores per dart:
Treble 20 34.36
Treble 19 33.10
Treble 18 30.88
Treble 17 28.55
Bullseye 27.17
The risk of a bounce-out, almost non-existent with the first dart thanks to improved dartboard technology, increases significantly when aiming at a target with a dart sticking out of it.
This undoubtedly works to the detriment of the treble 20's average score, but bounce-outs are an increasingly rare occurrence and not the defining factor here.
When one digs more deeply into the data, an astonishing statistic emerges: despite the fact that a dart at treble 19 scores more than 1 point less on average than a dart at treble 20, the overall PDC accuracy percentage for players throwing at treble 19 is higher than players' success rate in throwing at treble 20.
When every 2018 stage dart thrown in the first three visits of each leg is taken into account, professionals hit treble 20 39.09% of the time, slightly less than the 39.34% accuracy with which they find the treble 19 target.
Because the first dart thrown at treble 19 is typically the second or third dart of a visit, it may be that a player's first dart at treble 20 - the dart with which he has the lowest accuracy (34.8%) of any dart in the visit - warms them up after waiting for their opponent to throw.
Alternatively, the first dart could serve as a range-finding ‘practice’ dart for a more focused throw with the second or third dart at a totally empty bed.
As a rule, the more darts aimed at a given bed, the likelihood of scoring trebles increases at a reduced rate.
This means that aiming a third dart at any given bed yields only a small additional improvement in per-dart score relative to the second over the first.
The second-dart treble 19 has a 38.3% PDC-wide accuracy rate - a much better statistical starting point with a ‘marker’ already in the board than the 34.8% which a player starts on when attempting treble 20.
Because the treble 19 ‘cover shot’ has such a high initial probability of success, moreover, the likelihood of following a second-dart treble with a third, for a 134 or a 174, is especially high.
Regardless of what causes the unusually high accuracy of players throwing for treble 19, several professionals have recognised that the trade-off of risking a lower per-dart score for a higher probability of hitting a treble works in their favour if they can hit treble 19s at a higher rate than their opponent.
No man has taken greater advantage of this than Van Gerwen, who has found his target with almost every other dart he has thrown at treble 19 this year (49.2%).
His per-dart score of 36.76 is higher even than the corresponding average scores of most other professionals throwing at treble 20.
This advantage often means that Van Gerwen will often throw at treble 19 even when the treble 20 bed is not obscured, giving him one of the highest switch probabilities of any player in the PDC.
The exact rationale for switching in any given moment is known only to Van Gerwen himself, but the combination of frequently switching to treble 19 and hitting it with astonishing accuracy has made him a relentless and versatile scorer.
% of darts not thrown at treble 20, first 9 darts of each leg (PDC top 16):
Kim Huybrechts 30%
Michael van Gerwen 29%
Simon Whitlock 28%
Rob Cross 27%
Gary Anderson 24%
Michael Smith 24%
Gerwyn Price 22%
Dave Chisnall 20%
Daryl Gurney 16%
Darren Webster 14%
Alan Norris 13%
Ian White 12%
James Wade 11%
Mensur Suljovic 10%
Peter Wright 9%
Raymond van Barneveld 8%
The most important considerations for any player in deciding whether or not to switch trebles are the presence of ‘blockers’ around the treble 20 that could interfere with the trajectory of the dart, and the possibility of leaving a better finish by scoring multiples of 19.
Add to that the subtle statistical gamble of risking a lower average in the long-term in order to hit more trebles in the short term.
Players who ‘flip the switch’ and score on the treble 19s add a new flavour of risk and strategy to the game of 501.
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Re: The Ochepedia Thread
Christopher Kempf
@ochepedia
James Wade has now won 18 of 23 last leg deciders played in 2018 (78.3%).
He has only won 54.8% of all other legs played.
@ochepedia
James Wade has now won 18 of 23 last leg deciders played in 2018 (78.3%).
He has only won 54.8% of all other legs played.
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Re: The Ochepedia Thread
Halfway through the year... here's the top averages in PDC events in 2018, courtesy of @ochepedia.
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Re: The Ochepedia Thread
Interesting read. Despite the chance of leaving themselves no out if missing, I have always thought going for a T20 first dart would result in more chance of nailing the 132.
https://www.pdc.tv/news/2018/06/28/stat ... g-checkout
https://www.pdc.tv/news/2018/06/28/stat ... g-checkout
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ssjsa
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Re: The Ochepedia Thread
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ssjsa
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Re: The Ochepedia Thread
Christopher Kempf
@ochepedia
I find it incredible that Rob Cross has played 63 other televised matches in his career and has never exceeded the 107.67 average he recorded over 31 legs in the World Championship final.
Man, does this guy know when to turn it on.
@ochepedia
I find it incredible that Rob Cross has played 63 other televised matches in his career and has never exceeded the 107.67 average he recorded over 31 legs in the World Championship final.
Man, does this guy know when to turn it on.
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Re: The Ochepedia Thread
That's peaking at the right moment alright. And to think it was his first WC, immediately in the final versus Phil Taylor who had announced it would be the last WC of his career makes it even more impressive.ssjsa wrote:Christopher Kempf
@ochepedia
I find it incredible that Rob Cross has played 63 other televised matches in his career and has never exceeded the 107.67 average he recorded over 31 legs in the World Championship final.
Man, does this guy know when to turn it on.
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Re: The Ochepedia Thread
"Cometh the hour, cometh the man."Mgt wrote:That's peaking at the right moment alright. And to think it was his first WC, immediately in the final versus Phil Taylor who had announced it would be the last WC of his career makes it even more impressive.ssjsa wrote:Christopher Kempf
@ochepedia
I find it incredible that Rob Cross has played 63 other televised matches in his career and has never exceeded the 107.67 average he recorded over 31 legs in the World Championship final.
Man, does this guy know when to turn it on.
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Re: The Ochepedia Thread
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Re: The Ochepedia Thread
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Re: The Ochepedia Thread
Fluke?Mgt wrote:That's peaking at the right moment alright. And to think it was his first WC, immediately in the final versus Phil Taylor who had announced it would be the last WC of his career makes it even more impressive.ssjsa wrote:Christopher Kempf
@ochepedia
I find it incredible that Rob Cross has played 63 other televised matches in his career and has never exceeded the 107.67 average he recorded over 31 legs in the World Championship final.
Man, does this guy know when to turn it on.
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Re: The Ochepedia Thread
Christopher Kempf, the statistical analyst of the PDC, evaluates the BetVictor World Matchplay field by their averages and 180s.
To be seeded in the World Matchplay is to have attained a very prestigious position in the world of darts and often the borderline between seeded players and their competitors is razor-thin.
This year, an Order of Merit sum of £230,750 was enough to guarantee a player the 16th seed, and a favourable position from which to reach at least the second round, while a player with just £750 less in ranking earnings will be watching the proceedings in Blackpool purely as a spectator.
That small difference says very little about the true competitive differences between those two players.
Thus in order to evaluate players' recent performances, we ought to look at factors other than the mere amount of money earned.
As suggested by the past eight months' worth of darts on the floor and on stage, the all-Dutch clash between Jeffrey de Zwaan and world number one Michael van Gerwen has the greatest potential for high averages and dozens of maximums - in a 20-leg match, we would expect to see 14 180s on average from those two.
De Zwaan's year-to-date 94.51 average and van Gerwen's 101.79 represent the highest averages of 2018 for a World Matchplay qualifier and seeded player respectively.
Despite being the lowest-ranked player on the Order of Merit (number 68) in the tournament, De Zwaan's average is nonetheless higher than that of four seeded players.
The draw has arguably given Van Gerwen the toughest possible challenge amongst the seeded players, and the Dutchman's shock loss to his countryman on the first day of the UK Open will surely be fresh in his mind.
Because the World Matchplay seeds are based on a two-years' worth of ranking money, the players who are most in form at the moment are not necessarily the same ones who have received the most favourable draws in the first round.
Michael Smith, seeded ninth due to his lack of major-tournament cashes, is in fact the player with the fourth highest average in 2018 out of the 32 man field.
Adrian Lewis, ranked 16th after losing nearly half of his ranking money earlier this year, has the eighth highest average; and Gary Anderson, ranked fourth, has the third highest average.
Along with De Zwaan, the draw has placed the most challenging possible obstacles in front of Van Gerwen as the 2016 champion strives to return to the finals.
Of all the 16 first-round matches, only one seeded player - Kim Huybrechts - will encounter in his first opponent a player with a higher average to date in 2018.
In this respect alone, John Henderson could be seen as the favourite to knock out the 15th-seeded Belgian.
Huybrechts, furthermore, despite having qualified for the past six consecutive stagings of the World Matchplay, has yet to win on the Winter Gardens stage.
The winner of this match faces, in comparison to Van Gerwen, a player enjoying a much more favourable draw.
Peter Wright drew Jelle Klaasen in the first round, the only qualifier in the tournament with an average below 90 for 2018 to date, and will not face a player with a 95+ average at least until the semi-finals.
Everything being equal, a player who hits a 180 in any given leg wins 64% of the time.
A maximum against the throw, moreover, makes a player a 52% favourite to break.
This may give some hope to Steve West, the player with the 28th highest average of the field but the ninth highest rate of hitting maximums (0.31 180s per leg).
The only trouble is that his seeded first-round opponent, Daryl Gurney, hits 180s at a slightly higher rate.
And while James Wade's rate of 0.18 180s per leg is well off the pace one would expect for a player seeded 10th, indeed it is second to last, ahead of only Jermaine Wattimena - Wade repeatedly makes a mockery of this statistic by hitting dozens of 140s and completing clutch finishes, winning matches in unlikely ways.
While the number of 180s scored by the different players is of great interest to fans everywhere, it is not a reliable predictor of a player's ability to win matches.
With a potential second round meeting with Simon Whitlock - who, despite his seventh seed, has the 24th highest average in the tournament - awaiting Wade, he may have good reason to believe that his efficient, understated style of play may see him through to the quarter-finals.
Raymond van Barneveld is favoured to win his first match, but he faces one of the strongest unseeded players in the tournament in Kyle Anderson, to whom belongs the eighth highest rate of 180s and the 15th highest average.
And with Gary Anderson looming large in the second round - third in the PDC in both categories - the potential for major upsets and thrilling contests in the World Matchplay may be more fully realised in the second round than in the first.
Follow Christopher Kempf on Twitter through @Ochepedia
To be seeded in the World Matchplay is to have attained a very prestigious position in the world of darts and often the borderline between seeded players and their competitors is razor-thin.
This year, an Order of Merit sum of £230,750 was enough to guarantee a player the 16th seed, and a favourable position from which to reach at least the second round, while a player with just £750 less in ranking earnings will be watching the proceedings in Blackpool purely as a spectator.
That small difference says very little about the true competitive differences between those two players.
Thus in order to evaluate players' recent performances, we ought to look at factors other than the mere amount of money earned.
As suggested by the past eight months' worth of darts on the floor and on stage, the all-Dutch clash between Jeffrey de Zwaan and world number one Michael van Gerwen has the greatest potential for high averages and dozens of maximums - in a 20-leg match, we would expect to see 14 180s on average from those two.
De Zwaan's year-to-date 94.51 average and van Gerwen's 101.79 represent the highest averages of 2018 for a World Matchplay qualifier and seeded player respectively.
Despite being the lowest-ranked player on the Order of Merit (number 68) in the tournament, De Zwaan's average is nonetheless higher than that of four seeded players.
The draw has arguably given Van Gerwen the toughest possible challenge amongst the seeded players, and the Dutchman's shock loss to his countryman on the first day of the UK Open will surely be fresh in his mind.
Because the World Matchplay seeds are based on a two-years' worth of ranking money, the players who are most in form at the moment are not necessarily the same ones who have received the most favourable draws in the first round.
Michael Smith, seeded ninth due to his lack of major-tournament cashes, is in fact the player with the fourth highest average in 2018 out of the 32 man field.
Adrian Lewis, ranked 16th after losing nearly half of his ranking money earlier this year, has the eighth highest average; and Gary Anderson, ranked fourth, has the third highest average.
Along with De Zwaan, the draw has placed the most challenging possible obstacles in front of Van Gerwen as the 2016 champion strives to return to the finals.
Of all the 16 first-round matches, only one seeded player - Kim Huybrechts - will encounter in his first opponent a player with a higher average to date in 2018.
In this respect alone, John Henderson could be seen as the favourite to knock out the 15th-seeded Belgian.
Huybrechts, furthermore, despite having qualified for the past six consecutive stagings of the World Matchplay, has yet to win on the Winter Gardens stage.
The winner of this match faces, in comparison to Van Gerwen, a player enjoying a much more favourable draw.
Peter Wright drew Jelle Klaasen in the first round, the only qualifier in the tournament with an average below 90 for 2018 to date, and will not face a player with a 95+ average at least until the semi-finals.
Everything being equal, a player who hits a 180 in any given leg wins 64% of the time.
A maximum against the throw, moreover, makes a player a 52% favourite to break.
This may give some hope to Steve West, the player with the 28th highest average of the field but the ninth highest rate of hitting maximums (0.31 180s per leg).
The only trouble is that his seeded first-round opponent, Daryl Gurney, hits 180s at a slightly higher rate.
And while James Wade's rate of 0.18 180s per leg is well off the pace one would expect for a player seeded 10th, indeed it is second to last, ahead of only Jermaine Wattimena - Wade repeatedly makes a mockery of this statistic by hitting dozens of 140s and completing clutch finishes, winning matches in unlikely ways.
While the number of 180s scored by the different players is of great interest to fans everywhere, it is not a reliable predictor of a player's ability to win matches.
With a potential second round meeting with Simon Whitlock - who, despite his seventh seed, has the 24th highest average in the tournament - awaiting Wade, he may have good reason to believe that his efficient, understated style of play may see him through to the quarter-finals.
Raymond van Barneveld is favoured to win his first match, but he faces one of the strongest unseeded players in the tournament in Kyle Anderson, to whom belongs the eighth highest rate of 180s and the 15th highest average.
And with Gary Anderson looming large in the second round - third in the PDC in both categories - the potential for major upsets and thrilling contests in the World Matchplay may be more fully realised in the second round than in the first.
Follow Christopher Kempf on Twitter through @Ochepedia
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Re: The Ochepedia Thread
This is only significant if he only wins 50% of the bulls. Perhaps he threw first in 78% of the legs, making this a pretty meaningless statistic.ssjsa wrote:Christopher Kempf
@ochepedia
James Wade has now won 18 of 23 last leg deciders played in 2018 (78.3%).
He has only won 54.8% of all other legs played.
Re: RE: Re: The Ochepedia Thread
Great analysis, thank youssjsa wrote:Christopher Kempf, the statistical analyst of the PDC, evaluates the BetVictor World Matchplay field by their averages and 180s.
To be seeded in the World Matchplay is to have attained a very prestigious position in the world of darts and often the borderline between seeded players and their competitors is razor-thin.
This year, an Order of Merit sum of £230,750 was enough to guarantee a player the 16th seed, and a favourable position from which to reach at least the second round, while a player with just £750 less in ranking earnings will be watching the proceedings in Blackpool purely as a spectator.
That small difference says very little about the true competitive differences between those two players.
Thus in order to evaluate players' recent performances, we ought to look at factors other than the mere amount of money earned.
As suggested by the past eight months' worth of darts on the floor and on stage, the all-Dutch clash between Jeffrey de Zwaan and world number one Michael van Gerwen has the greatest potential for high averages and dozens of maximums - in a 20-leg match, we would expect to see 14 180s on average from those two.
De Zwaan's year-to-date 94.51 average and van Gerwen's 101.79 represent the highest averages of 2018 for a World Matchplay qualifier and seeded player respectively.
Despite being the lowest-ranked player on the Order of Merit (number 68) in the tournament, De Zwaan's average is nonetheless higher than that of four seeded players.
The draw has arguably given Van Gerwen the toughest possible challenge amongst the seeded players, and the Dutchman's shock loss to his countryman on the first day of the UK Open will surely be fresh in his mind.
Because the World Matchplay seeds are based on a two-years' worth of ranking money, the players who are most in form at the moment are not necessarily the same ones who have received the most favourable draws in the first round.
Michael Smith, seeded ninth due to his lack of major-tournament cashes, is in fact the player with the fourth highest average in 2018 out of the 32 man field.
Adrian Lewis, ranked 16th after losing nearly half of his ranking money earlier this year, has the eighth highest average; and Gary Anderson, ranked fourth, has the third highest average.
Along with De Zwaan, the draw has placed the most challenging possible obstacles in front of Van Gerwen as the 2016 champion strives to return to the finals.
Of all the 16 first-round matches, only one seeded player - Kim Huybrechts - will encounter in his first opponent a player with a higher average to date in 2018.
In this respect alone, John Henderson could be seen as the favourite to knock out the 15th-seeded Belgian.
Huybrechts, furthermore, despite having qualified for the past six consecutive stagings of the World Matchplay, has yet to win on the Winter Gardens stage.
The winner of this match faces, in comparison to Van Gerwen, a player enjoying a much more favourable draw.
Peter Wright drew Jelle Klaasen in the first round, the only qualifier in the tournament with an average below 90 for 2018 to date, and will not face a player with a 95+ average at least until the semi-finals.
Everything being equal, a player who hits a 180 in any given leg wins 64% of the time.
A maximum against the throw, moreover, makes a player a 52% favourite to break.
This may give some hope to Steve West, the player with the 28th highest average of the field but the ninth highest rate of hitting maximums (0.31 180s per leg).
The only trouble is that his seeded first-round opponent, Daryl Gurney, hits 180s at a slightly higher rate.
And while James Wade's rate of 0.18 180s per leg is well off the pace one would expect for a player seeded 10th, indeed it is second to last, ahead of only Jermaine Wattimena - Wade repeatedly makes a mockery of this statistic by hitting dozens of 140s and completing clutch finishes, winning matches in unlikely ways.
While the number of 180s scored by the different players is of great interest to fans everywhere, it is not a reliable predictor of a player's ability to win matches.
With a potential second round meeting with Simon Whitlock - who, despite his seventh seed, has the 24th highest average in the tournament - awaiting Wade, he may have good reason to believe that his efficient, understated style of play may see him through to the quarter-finals.
Raymond van Barneveld is favoured to win his first match, but he faces one of the strongest unseeded players in the tournament in Kyle Anderson, to whom belongs the eighth highest rate of 180s and the 15th highest average.
And with Gary Anderson looming large in the second round - third in the PDC in both categories - the potential for major upsets and thrilling contests in the World Matchplay may be more fully realised in the second round than in the first.
Follow Christopher Kempf on Twitter through @Ochepedia
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Re: The Ochepedia Thread
Christopher Kempf, the statistical analyst of the PDC, takes a look at Gary Anderson's magnificent performance at the BetVictor World Matchplay.
Coming into the 2018 World Matchplay, Anderson was the best double 20 hitter in the PDC.
His incredible accuracy - nearly 50% over the span of 300+ attempts - meant that he was winning about 40% of his legs on that double alone.
If his scoring could not quite match that of Michael van Gerwen or Rob Cross, then he certainly made up for it by his merciless finishing.
Anyone who had expected Anderson to continue in this vein would have been surprised by his performance in Blackpool.
The Flying Scotsman missed 136 darts at double in his World Matchplay campaign, finishing with a doubles percentage of 36.5% - below the PDC stage average of 37.9%.
On tops he hit 18 doubles from 53 darts (34%) and, after beating Raymond van Barneveld with an 82 checkout on the bullseye, Anderson did not land another bull checkout, finishing one of 14 for the tournament.
Yet his performance overall was met with great acclaim as he won his first Winter Gardens title, and the averages he recorded showed no indication of having been encumbered by bad luck on the doubles. How did Anderson manage to overcome his finishing struggles and seize the title?
The short answer is that Anderson simply hit enough trebles to guarantee himself extra attempts at doubles - a few extra misses did not matter to the Scotsman if his opponent was waiting on a difficult three-dart combination finish, or could attempt no finish at all.
In his attempts at treble 20, Anderson was ruthless and methodical.
No one has ever hit more treble 20s in a World Matchplay than Anderson.
While his enormous total of 630 is primarily due to having played so many legs, his 48.6% accuracy on that segment is unrivalled in its own respect.
By averaging 115.02 with every three darts he threw at that treble, in spite of 8% of his attempts landing in the ones or fives, he would reach a finish of 156, on average and on throw, after just nine darts.
That head start would allow him at least six, and often nine or 12, darts with which to check out from that position.
Anderson's median score of 50 after 12 darts thrown meant that he was attempting a double for a 12-darter about 1/3 of the time, and returning to the board, more often than not, to work on his doubles once his opponent could not close out the leg.
Indeed, while a 36.5% is an unexpectedly low number for a doubles percentage from a world-class player like Anderson, what matters in the end is not that arbitrary figure but the importance or gravity of the situations in which the doubles are hit.
Of the 42 situations in which The Flying Scotsman had chance to win a leg with his last dart, he only completed 11 checkouts.
One double hit in such a situation was the double 12 which finished off a perfect leg against Joe Cullen - which will be remembered long after Anderson's double trouble elsewhere in the tournament is forgotten.
The vast majority of those 42 attempts, moreover, were undertaken with Anderson's opponent waiting on finishes that have less than a 50% PDC-wide completion rate, so those missed doubles in particular mattered little to the actual outcome of the match.
At the very ends of legs, however, with Anderson attempting a double with the first dart of his visit, he was far more efficient.
Only 20.8% of such checkout attempts did not result in winning the leg by the end of the visit, and Anderson drilled the double with his first dart in 20 of his 53 attempts, leaving no room for doubt or nerves to seep in.
Despite being crowned champion, Anderson is nowhere on the list of the top 10 players with the highest finishing percentage in the Matchplay.
All five of his opponents hit their doubles with greater accuracy than he, and only in one match did he break 40% on the doubles.
But also consider that his opponents attempted 34% fewer doubles than Anderson, and - Cullen's two missed match darts notwithstanding - neither of them had as many successful hit doubles, regardless of the overall percentage.
Consider also the timing of Anderson's successful checkouts, and his treble 20 percentage, and the fact that the Scottish star had the only 100+ tournament average, and it becomes clear that the doubles percentage, like the 3-dart average, is no perfect predictor of match outcomes.
Anderson can win with pinpoint accuracy on the doubles, or with incredible treble 20 hitting, or even a combination of the two; but that is immaterial so long as he wins.
Follow Christopher Kempf on Twitter through @Ochepedia
Coming into the 2018 World Matchplay, Anderson was the best double 20 hitter in the PDC.
His incredible accuracy - nearly 50% over the span of 300+ attempts - meant that he was winning about 40% of his legs on that double alone.
If his scoring could not quite match that of Michael van Gerwen or Rob Cross, then he certainly made up for it by his merciless finishing.
Anyone who had expected Anderson to continue in this vein would have been surprised by his performance in Blackpool.
The Flying Scotsman missed 136 darts at double in his World Matchplay campaign, finishing with a doubles percentage of 36.5% - below the PDC stage average of 37.9%.
On tops he hit 18 doubles from 53 darts (34%) and, after beating Raymond van Barneveld with an 82 checkout on the bullseye, Anderson did not land another bull checkout, finishing one of 14 for the tournament.
Yet his performance overall was met with great acclaim as he won his first Winter Gardens title, and the averages he recorded showed no indication of having been encumbered by bad luck on the doubles. How did Anderson manage to overcome his finishing struggles and seize the title?
The short answer is that Anderson simply hit enough trebles to guarantee himself extra attempts at doubles - a few extra misses did not matter to the Scotsman if his opponent was waiting on a difficult three-dart combination finish, or could attempt no finish at all.
In his attempts at treble 20, Anderson was ruthless and methodical.
No one has ever hit more treble 20s in a World Matchplay than Anderson.
While his enormous total of 630 is primarily due to having played so many legs, his 48.6% accuracy on that segment is unrivalled in its own respect.
By averaging 115.02 with every three darts he threw at that treble, in spite of 8% of his attempts landing in the ones or fives, he would reach a finish of 156, on average and on throw, after just nine darts.
That head start would allow him at least six, and often nine or 12, darts with which to check out from that position.
Anderson's median score of 50 after 12 darts thrown meant that he was attempting a double for a 12-darter about 1/3 of the time, and returning to the board, more often than not, to work on his doubles once his opponent could not close out the leg.
Indeed, while a 36.5% is an unexpectedly low number for a doubles percentage from a world-class player like Anderson, what matters in the end is not that arbitrary figure but the importance or gravity of the situations in which the doubles are hit.
Of the 42 situations in which The Flying Scotsman had chance to win a leg with his last dart, he only completed 11 checkouts.
One double hit in such a situation was the double 12 which finished off a perfect leg against Joe Cullen - which will be remembered long after Anderson's double trouble elsewhere in the tournament is forgotten.
The vast majority of those 42 attempts, moreover, were undertaken with Anderson's opponent waiting on finishes that have less than a 50% PDC-wide completion rate, so those missed doubles in particular mattered little to the actual outcome of the match.
At the very ends of legs, however, with Anderson attempting a double with the first dart of his visit, he was far more efficient.
Only 20.8% of such checkout attempts did not result in winning the leg by the end of the visit, and Anderson drilled the double with his first dart in 20 of his 53 attempts, leaving no room for doubt or nerves to seep in.
Despite being crowned champion, Anderson is nowhere on the list of the top 10 players with the highest finishing percentage in the Matchplay.
All five of his opponents hit their doubles with greater accuracy than he, and only in one match did he break 40% on the doubles.
But also consider that his opponents attempted 34% fewer doubles than Anderson, and - Cullen's two missed match darts notwithstanding - neither of them had as many successful hit doubles, regardless of the overall percentage.
Consider also the timing of Anderson's successful checkouts, and his treble 20 percentage, and the fact that the Scottish star had the only 100+ tournament average, and it becomes clear that the doubles percentage, like the 3-dart average, is no perfect predictor of match outcomes.
Anderson can win with pinpoint accuracy on the doubles, or with incredible treble 20 hitting, or even a combination of the two; but that is immaterial so long as he wins.
Follow Christopher Kempf on Twitter through @Ochepedia
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Re: The Ochepedia Thread
Christopher Kempf, the statistical analyst of the PDC, takes a look at the importance of double percentages in 2018.
He knows he doesn't need to break his own world record average to win matches.
Michael van Gerwen, who hit 46.75% of his treble 20s in the six World Series events of the past months, draws upon his unique scoring talent to race ahead of his opponents and win matches on a game of attrition.
By securing more darts at doubles than his opponents who are less proficient scorers, the Dutch star can usually put more legs on the scoreboard even if his doubles percentage is below par.
In the first few months after the retirement of his great rival Phil Taylor, a new era of dominance appeared to be unfolding as MvG effortlessly won more than a dozen titles across Europe.
But with his first-round exit at the World Matchplay, and his disappointingly small share of the World Series prize fund, something has changed.
Van Gerwen is playing less efficiently; his countless trebles are going to waste in legs where he misses doubles, his 170 finishes no longer make a difference in his matches, and he is losing by wide margins to players who will not be broken.
The rest of the top players are catching up to Van Gerwen, and it's starting to show in the statistics.
Consider, for example, the changes in players' finishing doubles accuracy between the 2017 season and the first eight months of 2018.
The majority of the PDC's top 16 players have increased their accuracy on the doubles between 2017 and 2018, and the overall PDC stage doubles percentage has increased from 37.75 in 2017 to 38.11 this year.
Yet MvG's percentage has fallen to 43.24 this year - barely more than five points above average, compared to nearly seven last year.
Dragged down by his often sub-par doubling in the World Series (where he hit 41.6% of them), Van Gerwen no longer leads the PDC in that statistic among players with extensive TV and European Tour exposure.
While Kim Huybrechts and Adrian Lewis have not played as many legs as MvG, they have both bested the world number one's doubles percentage over the span of more than 200 double attempts.
Ian White challenged MvG throughout 2017 for the honour of topping the doubles leaderboard, but eventually finished the season with the second highest percentage among the top players in the PDC.
No other player, despite a major title victory or a breakthrough season for their career, managed to come within three points of Van Gerwen. Now the gap is far narrower.
Peter Wright's 42.11% puts him 1.13 percentage points behind MvG, up from 40.71 (3.53 behind) in 2017.
Rob Cross, who drilled an excellent 43.58% of his doubles in the World Series, is only 0.66 percentage points behind MvG in 2018 after finishing 4.08 behind last year.
Even Raymond van Barneveld, who is still searching for his first TV title since May 2015, has brought himself from five points behind his Dutch compatriot to almost one.
While other players have broken new ground on their favourite and go-to doubles, Van Gerwen's previously prodigious double 16 and 20 percentages have declined substantially, not recording noteworthy percentages on any of the double mainstays.
James Wade and Michael Smith have both reached 46% accuracy on double ten, Wade's favourite and a staple of Smith's game.
Gary Anderson's 46% on double 20 has resulted in him winning 161 legs on that double this year on stage, more than any other player on any other double.
Cross' staggering 53% on double 18 has helped him record a PDC-leading ten ten-darters this year. Yet MvG's accuracy on double 16 has fallen by 1.03 percentage points, and his accuracy on double 20 by a troubling 3.82 points, well out of step with the PDC's overall trend.
This means that the best player in the world is putting himself under more pressure by not only missing almost three additional darts at double per 100 legs, but also forcing himself to sweat through more situations in which his opponent gets a chance to steal the leg where last year the referee may already have called out "Game shot" in his favour.
In those situations, MvG is facing opponents who are more accurate on doubles and more likely to take advantage of the few opportunities that one gets with which to vanquish Van Gerwen.
While MvG has improved his percentage on the bullseye substantially this year - his 27 stage bullseye checkouts in 2018 lead the PDC by some distance - with opponents better poised to take advantage of misses, it is partly out of necessity that he has boosted his accuracy on the board's smallest target.
Even that improvement has not compensated for the missed doubles elsewhere - just one or two can halt MvG's momentum and turn the tide of a match.
Both he and Cross won 129 legs in the World Series, but Van Gerwen missed darts to win 39 more, while Cross only failed to win 30 due to missed doubles.
With the World Grand Prix - and its unique double-start format - fast approaching, a doubles percentage of 42.28 on double 20 may not be good enough for MvG to get ahead of a player like Gary Anderson, who, at this moment in 2018, holds a large advantage over the world number one on the starting double.
Getting those percentages up will surely be a focus for every player between now and October.
Follow Christopher Kempf on Twitter through @Ochepedia
He knows he doesn't need to break his own world record average to win matches.
Michael van Gerwen, who hit 46.75% of his treble 20s in the six World Series events of the past months, draws upon his unique scoring talent to race ahead of his opponents and win matches on a game of attrition.
By securing more darts at doubles than his opponents who are less proficient scorers, the Dutch star can usually put more legs on the scoreboard even if his doubles percentage is below par.
In the first few months after the retirement of his great rival Phil Taylor, a new era of dominance appeared to be unfolding as MvG effortlessly won more than a dozen titles across Europe.
But with his first-round exit at the World Matchplay, and his disappointingly small share of the World Series prize fund, something has changed.
Van Gerwen is playing less efficiently; his countless trebles are going to waste in legs where he misses doubles, his 170 finishes no longer make a difference in his matches, and he is losing by wide margins to players who will not be broken.
The rest of the top players are catching up to Van Gerwen, and it's starting to show in the statistics.
Consider, for example, the changes in players' finishing doubles accuracy between the 2017 season and the first eight months of 2018.
The majority of the PDC's top 16 players have increased their accuracy on the doubles between 2017 and 2018, and the overall PDC stage doubles percentage has increased from 37.75 in 2017 to 38.11 this year.
Yet MvG's percentage has fallen to 43.24 this year - barely more than five points above average, compared to nearly seven last year.
Dragged down by his often sub-par doubling in the World Series (where he hit 41.6% of them), Van Gerwen no longer leads the PDC in that statistic among players with extensive TV and European Tour exposure.
While Kim Huybrechts and Adrian Lewis have not played as many legs as MvG, they have both bested the world number one's doubles percentage over the span of more than 200 double attempts.
Ian White challenged MvG throughout 2017 for the honour of topping the doubles leaderboard, but eventually finished the season with the second highest percentage among the top players in the PDC.
No other player, despite a major title victory or a breakthrough season for their career, managed to come within three points of Van Gerwen. Now the gap is far narrower.
Peter Wright's 42.11% puts him 1.13 percentage points behind MvG, up from 40.71 (3.53 behind) in 2017.
Rob Cross, who drilled an excellent 43.58% of his doubles in the World Series, is only 0.66 percentage points behind MvG in 2018 after finishing 4.08 behind last year.
Even Raymond van Barneveld, who is still searching for his first TV title since May 2015, has brought himself from five points behind his Dutch compatriot to almost one.
While other players have broken new ground on their favourite and go-to doubles, Van Gerwen's previously prodigious double 16 and 20 percentages have declined substantially, not recording noteworthy percentages on any of the double mainstays.
James Wade and Michael Smith have both reached 46% accuracy on double ten, Wade's favourite and a staple of Smith's game.
Gary Anderson's 46% on double 20 has resulted in him winning 161 legs on that double this year on stage, more than any other player on any other double.
Cross' staggering 53% on double 18 has helped him record a PDC-leading ten ten-darters this year. Yet MvG's accuracy on double 16 has fallen by 1.03 percentage points, and his accuracy on double 20 by a troubling 3.82 points, well out of step with the PDC's overall trend.
This means that the best player in the world is putting himself under more pressure by not only missing almost three additional darts at double per 100 legs, but also forcing himself to sweat through more situations in which his opponent gets a chance to steal the leg where last year the referee may already have called out "Game shot" in his favour.
In those situations, MvG is facing opponents who are more accurate on doubles and more likely to take advantage of the few opportunities that one gets with which to vanquish Van Gerwen.
While MvG has improved his percentage on the bullseye substantially this year - his 27 stage bullseye checkouts in 2018 lead the PDC by some distance - with opponents better poised to take advantage of misses, it is partly out of necessity that he has boosted his accuracy on the board's smallest target.
Even that improvement has not compensated for the missed doubles elsewhere - just one or two can halt MvG's momentum and turn the tide of a match.
Both he and Cross won 129 legs in the World Series, but Van Gerwen missed darts to win 39 more, while Cross only failed to win 30 due to missed doubles.
With the World Grand Prix - and its unique double-start format - fast approaching, a doubles percentage of 42.28 on double 20 may not be good enough for MvG to get ahead of a player like Gary Anderson, who, at this moment in 2018, holds a large advantage over the world number one on the starting double.
Getting those percentages up will surely be a focus for every player between now and October.
Follow Christopher Kempf on Twitter through @Ochepedia
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Re: The Ochepedia Thread
The players with the highest double % with the 3rd dart (last dart in hand) in 2018, min. 50 attempts:
1. J de Zwaan 50.9%
2. A Boulton 46.2%
3. S Bunting 44.7%
4. D Webster 44.5%
5. V van der Voort 44.2%
6. P Wright 44.2%
7. M van Gerwen 43.9%
8. R van Barneveld 43.9%
1. J de Zwaan 50.9%
2. A Boulton 46.2%
3. S Bunting 44.7%
4. D Webster 44.5%
5. V van der Voort 44.2%
6. P Wright 44.2%
7. M van Gerwen 43.9%
8. R van Barneveld 43.9%
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Re: The Ochepedia Thread
Tweet from PDC.
AVERAGES!
Following Players Championship 17-18, @ochepedia has taken a look at the distribution of winning/losing match averages on the floor this year.
AVERAGES!
Following Players Championship 17-18, @ochepedia has taken a look at the distribution of winning/losing match averages on the floor this year.
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Re: The Ochepedia Thread
Who was the winning average of 64.